Chelsea Title Contenders

As the Premier League title race heats up, Chelsea have suddenly found themselves within touching distance of top spot. If Enzo Maresca’s side defeat league leaders Arsenal at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, they will close the gap to just three points—an impressive position for a young side still considered a project in progress. But does that make Chelsea genuine title contenders?

On paper, the numbers tell an interesting story… and the narrative around Chelsea is evolving rapidly.

Chelsea’s Form: Good, Promising—But Championship Level Yet?

Chelsea are playing attractive, progressive football under Maresca, and their six-match unbeaten run in all competitions reflects growing confidence. Despite injuries—including losing Cole Palmer for over two months—Chelsea’s attacking output is impressively similar to Arsenal’s.

But the major difference?
Arsenal’s defence is elite. Chelsea’s is improving—but not yet elite.

Historically, title-winning teams maintain a +1 non-penalty expected goals (npXG) difference per game. This indicates a dominance of chance creation over chances conceded.
Only Arsenal hit that mark this season. Chelsea fall short—mainly due to defensive inconsistencies.

Marc Cucurella himself admitted the team have dropped points against sides they “should beat”—a critical weakness for any title challenger.

Interestingly, Arsenal are on a 16-match unbeaten run and are even threatening Chelsea’s legendary 2004-05 defensive records of:

• Most clean sheets (25)

• Fewest goals conceded (15)

Maresca acknowledged the gulf:
“You can see they don’t concede goals. They are defensively the best team.”

So while Chelsea are progressing fast, the numbers still slightly favour Arsenal in consistency and defensive stability.

Set Pieces: A Battle of Fine Margins

Both teams thrive in possession. Both press high. Both circulate the ball patiently.
But set pieces have become a defining advantage for Arsenal:

• Arsenal: 10 set-piece goals (highest xG at 7.88)

• Chelsea: 8 set-piece goals (4th-highest xG at 5.44)

Defensively, however, the gap widens:

• Arsenal xG against from set pieces: 2.04 (2nd best)

• Chelsea xG against from set pieces: 6.40 (2nd worst)

Against a team so sharp from dead balls, Chelsea must be nearly perfect on Sunday.

Also Read: UEFA Europa League: Battle for Rising Champions

A Troubling Record vs Arsenal

If Chelsea want to be considered contenders, they must overcome one of their most frustrating statistics:

• Just one win in their last 11 Premier League matches vs Arsenal

• Winless in six home league games against them

If Chelsea want to announce themselves as real title hopefuls, this is the fixture to do it.

Are Chelsea Too Young to Win the Title?

One of the biggest talking points surrounding Chelsea is the age profile of their squad. Last season, they fielded the youngest average starting XI in Premier League history.

In 2024-25:

• Chelsea average starting XI age: 24 years, 169 days

• Arsenal average: 26 years, 166 days

And here is a major historical truth:

No team has ever won the Premier League with an average starting XI under 25 years old.

Despite this, Chelsea’s young group has shown maturity—beating Liverpool, Tottenham, and Barcelona this season alone.

Players like Levi Colwill and Liam Delap have publicly expressed belief that Chelsea can win the Premier League or Champions League this season. Internally, BBC Sport reports that many players share this belief.

Squad Rotation: A Strength or Weakness?

Chelsea have made 103 starting XI changes across competitions this season—the most of any Premier League team. This includes:

• Averaging seven changes per match before the international break

• Rotating heavily in every competition

Rotation protects fitness but hurts chemistry. Title-winning sides often rely on a stable core; Chelsea are yet to find theirs.

Yet Maresca’s tactical clarity is evident, and the team is maturing. His comment sums up their evolution:

“In 18 months together, these players showed many times they can beat top teams.”

So… Are Chelsea Genuine Title Contenders?

The answer: They are very close—but not quite favourites yet.

Why They ARE contenders:

• Attack strong enough to match Arsenal’s

• Six-game unbeaten run shows momentum

• Wins vs Liverpool, Tottenham, and Barcelona prove quality

• Squad maturing rapidly under Maresca

• Players privately believe they can win major trophies

Why They AREN’T favourites yet:

• Defensive numbers still below title-winning levels

• Poor record vs Arsenal

• High rotation affects rhythm

• Youngest squad in the league

• Arsenal’s consistency sets a higher bar

If Chelsea beat Arsenal this weekend, everything changes.

Suddenly, the gap closes to three points.
Belief grows.
Narratives shift.
Momentum takes over.

Chelsea may not be “expected” to win the Premier League this season—but they are absolutely in the conversation. And with a young, rising squad, they may become stronger as the season progresses.